Increasing dengue outbreaks in temperate Brazil are associated with Aedes aegypti invasion and infestation levels
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Dengue fever, caused by dengue virus (DENV), is one of the most significant mosquito-borne diseases globally, with increasing risk due to the expansion of Aedes vectors into subtropical and temperate zones. Brazil accounted for 70% of dengue cases reported worldwide in 2024, and the virus has recently become endemic in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Here, we integrate entomological, epidemiological and environmental data and generate complementary genomic data to investigate DENV dynamics in Southern Brazil from 2015 to 2023. During this period, Aedes aegypti expanded across state municipalities, with a marked increase in dengue cases from 2020 onward. Nearly half of the municipalities surpassed the incidence threshold of ≥20 cases per 100,000 residents per year by 2023, indicating endemic transmission. Genomic analysis of 665 new DENV genomes is consistent with the local persistence of viral lineages across years, driving seasonal outbreaks. Moreover, Northwest and Metropolitan regions are identified as key hubs for viral spread within the Rio Grande do Sul state. These findings highlight the north-to-south expansion of dengue into temperate regions, emphasizing the urgent need for intensification of vector control and surveillance in newly endemic areas to mitigate dengue burden in a mostly naive human population.
Source: Nature Communications
Authors: Thales de Lima Bermann, Danielly Alves Mendes Barbosa, Tatiana Schaffer Gregianini, Fernanda Marques Godinho, Ludmila Fiorenzano Baethgen, Fernanda Letícia Martiny, Erica Bortoli Möllmann, Amanda Pellenz Ruivo, Franciellen Machado dos Santos, Caroline do Nascimento Ferreira, Gustavo Barbosa de Lima, Filipe Zimmer Dezordi, Júlia Gabriela Caldas Amancio, Milena Bauermann, Taina Machado Selayaran, Elgion Lucio da Silva Loreto, Felipe Gomes Naveca, André Luiz Sá de Oliveira, Ana Beatriz Gorini da Veiga, Marcelo Henrique Santos Paiva, Tulio de Lima Campos, Andreia Carina Turchetto-Zolet, Gonzalo Bello, Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela, Matheus Filgueira Bezerra, Luiz Felipe Valter de Oliveira, Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas, Tiago Gräf, Richard Steiner Salvato, Gabriel da Luz Wallau
Institutions: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Instituto Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Instituto Carlos Chagas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Universidade Luterana do Brasil, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Fiocruz Amazônia, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, University of Münster, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Universidade de São Paulo
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $6,990
OpenAlex ID: W4407936697