Work

Assessment of Risks, Efficiency, Costs, and Gain of Natural Hazard (Catastrophe) Consequences Prevention Based on Geophysical Monitoring

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the efficiency of forecasting hazards and catastrophic processes induced by high-energy terrestrial sources, based on an integrated monitoring of the state of geophysical processes. Using methods of mathematical statistics and detection theory, relations have been obtained that can be used to calculate the coefficients of the efficiency of warning of catastrophes and the costs associated with a predicted event. The hazard (catastrophe) prevention efficiency coefficient has been shown to be dependent only on the conditional probability of missing a hazard. The relative cost parameter is a function of five parameters: a priori probability of the unwanted event, a conditional false alarm probability, a conditional missed detect probability, relative costs in the case of false alarm probability, and costs to minimize consequences of the hazardous event in case it has been accurately forecast. The gain from organizing geophysical monitoring has been estimated for a few dangers and catastrophes of terrestrial nature. The gain has been shown to be significant in many cases. An energy-based classification of the most important natural sources of hazards and catastrophes, as well as their consequences, is proposed or improved.

Source: Risk Analysis

DOI: 10.1111/risa.70400

Authors: Leonid F. Chernogor, Leonid L. Chornohor

Institutions: V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, State Scientific Institution “Institute for Single Crystals” of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Language: English

Topic: Disaster Management and Resilience

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,880

Funder: National Research Foundation of Ukraine