Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Ecological forecasts are increasingly required to inform science, policy and action in the face of rapid environmental and societal change. However, differences in how developers and end-users judge the value of ecological forecasts may limit their utility and uptake in real-world decision-making. Here, we use a participatory approach to propose a novel, holistic framework for the evaluation of ecological forecasts along two intersecting axes: quality and success. Quality is defined by the defensible development and predictive performance of ecological forecasts, while success captures the usefulness of a forecast in achieving its intended aim. We propose twelve shared criteria for evaluating quality and success spanning the forecasting process, set-up, and outputs while capturing forecast development, communication, performance, and operationality. Together, these criteria provide a common basis for the co-development of ecological forecasts, and better connect science with forecast-informed decision-making.
DOI: 10.32942/x24m6b
Institutions: University of Reading, University of Turin, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Aarhus University, Kyushu University, Utrecht University, University of Cambridge, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Estación Biológica de Doñana, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, University of Edinburgh
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7224100830