Violence prediction 16 years later: An updated and extended network meta-analytic comparison of nine risk assessment instruments.
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study designs: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: = 0.66) and concluding that all nine tools demonstrated similar predictive validity for future violence. HYPOTHESIS: Sixteen years later, we asked whether the accumulating body of research had altered these conclusions. We hypothesized that extended evidence and more refined methodology might increase predictive validity estimates and uncover meaningful differences among the nine instruments. METHOD: ². RESULTS: = 0.76). No statistically significant differences in predictive validity were found among the tools, except for Psychopathy Checklist-Revised Factor 1, which exhibited significantly lower predictive value than most other instruments. Moderator analysis identified age as a significant predictor, with higher predictive validity observed in younger compared to older samples. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings corroborate and extend Yang et al.'s (2010) seminal conclusions, confirming that all nine instruments demonstrate statistically equivalent moderate predictive validity for future violence. The persistence of moderate effect sizes over 16 years suggests limited transformative progress in risk-assessment development, underscoring the need for novel, qualitatively different methodological approaches to advance the field. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).
Source: Law and Human Behavior
DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000678
Language: English
Subfield: Clinical Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7224174997