Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is essential for mitigating human-induced climate change and achieving climate neutrality, requiring reliable and resilient renewable energy systems. However, global warming is expected to increase the instability of renewable energy resources, particularly during periods of simultaneous low wind and solar power generation, known as renewable energy droughts (REDs). Nevertheless, a consistent assessment of REDs that explicitly accounts for the compound dependence and joint variability of wind and solar resources remains lacking. Here, we investigate REDs globally under 1.5°, 2.0° and 3.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) using CMIP6 multi-model simulations, explicitly capturing their compound nature and the joint dependence between wind and solar resources. The impacts of global warming are evaluated through changes in RED intensity, duration and frequency across GWLs. Results show that REDs intensify progressively with warming, with statistically significant changes affecting more than half of global land area for all three characteristics at 3.0°C GWL. Machine learning analysis identifies solar radiation as the dominant driver of RED intensification, with influence strengthening under higher GWLs. These findings highlight the need to integrate compound risk assessments into renewable energy planning to ensure system reliability in a warming world.
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,490
Award: G2566854506
OpenAlex ID: W7164918147