Work

Geospatial Assessment of Metro-Based Multimodal Alternatives to Ride-Hailing and Associated Health Co-Benefits: A Utility-Based Counterfactual Framework

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Ride-hailing provides convenient door-to-door mobility services. However, it may also substitute for public transport use and contribute to health risks by decreasing transport-related physical activity. This study develops a utility-based counterfactual assessment framework to estimate the potential shift from ride-hailing to metro-based multimodal travel and its associated health co-benefits. Using over twenty million ride-hailing orders in 2025 from Nanjing, China, we generated multimodal alternatives combining metro, walking or cycling access and egress trip segments, and compared them with observed ride-hailing trips in terms of generalized utilities, physical activity levels, and resultant health benefits. The results show that 17.18% of ride-hailing trips had potential to shift to metro-based multimodal travel. These shiftable trips were generally more costly and time-consuming by ride-hailing, whereas their multimodal alternatives involved shorter access and egress distances and fewer metro transfers. Such potential shifts were estimated to increase average energy expenditure by 116.7 kcal per trip and produce substantial health benefits (127,869 healthy life-years and 6.39 billion Chinese yuan (CNY) in economic gains) at the population level. The estimated shift potential and health benefits were particularly sensitive to the disutility associated with access, egress, and transfer burdens. These findings demonstrate how large-scale mobility data and counterfactual modelling can inform urban health-oriented mobility interventions beyond conventional transport-efficiency evaluation.

Source: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

DOI: 10.3390/ijgi15110496