LAB #4839 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 36.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 36.3% (+4.4pp, n=113) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only bite on trades whose entry timestamp falls in a DISTRIBUTION quarterly phase — and the live window you've shown (Sep 3–11, 2026) sits in a single, narrow slice of the quarter, so at most a handful of the 10 listed trades would even be eligible for exclusion. The three CLOSED/LOSS shorts (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) are the ones the filter is implicitly claiming to have avoided, but with n=113 and a +4.4pp lift, the per-trade effect is ~5 trades' worth of difference — well inside noise for a 10-trade sample. Net: expect the filter to have removed 1–3 losers and possibly 1 winner, leaving realized PnL roughly flat to modestly positive, not the +4.4pp headline. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, if the +4.4pp is real, you'd expect win rate to drift from ~32% toward ~36% on el Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7224898892