Sovereign Debt Exposure to Climate Migration and Shrinking Tax Bases
Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: This analysis examines whether internal displacement translates into sovereign fiscal pressure or broader economic disruption across countries. Annual World Bank, IMF, and IDMC records covering 2010 to 2019 support unbalanced panel regressions with state and year effects and standard errors clustered by state. Estimation samples contain 1,101 observations from 156 states for debt, 190 observations from 34 states for tax revenue, and 246 observations from 41 states for growth. Combined disaster and conflict displacement is negatively associated with economic growth: an additional 100 movements per 100,000 residents corresponds to approximately 0.108 percentage points lower annual growth. Disaster displacement and debt exhibit a positive but imprecise association, while conflict displacement and tax revenue show a negative but imprecise association. The growth coefficient remains negative across sensitivity checks, although its precision depends on functional form and state composition. These findings distinguish economic disruption from contemporaneous fiscal adjustment rather than establish causal transmission. The contribution refines displacement frameworks by separating exposure categories and fiscal outcomes. Policy assessment should integrate displacement monitoring with production, revenue, assistance, and recovery financing information.
Author: Kannan Vishwanath & Lloyd Zulu
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225006692