Work

Determination of human error probability for heavy truck drivers under wartime conditions

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The object of the study is the process of changing the cognitive resource of heavy truck drivers during the logistical supply of critical infrastructure facilities under wartime conditions. The problem lies in the lack of a model of changing the cognitive resource of heavy truck drivers, which would combine the psychophysiological state of the driver, the phase structure of the run route and external disturbances to predict the probability of human error in real time. An adapted six-component model of the driver’s functional states has been developed, in which, along with optimal mobilization, monotony, fatigue and drowsiness, acute stress and cognitive tunneling are taken into account. A model of the evolution of the cognitive resource with degradation and recovery flows has been constructed, as well as a procedure for calculating the error intensity as a parameter of a heterogeneous Poisson process. As a result, critical points of reduction in the reliability of the driver’s work before the occurrence of a dangerous event were obtained and preventive actions were quantitatively substantiated. A numerical example of a six-hour run showed a decrease in cognitive resource from 0.95 to 0.006 and an increase in the accumulated probability of error to 0.1839 in the final phase with a combination of fatigue and circadian drowsiness. Such results are explained by a nonlinear increase in the intensity of errors with a deficit of cognitive resource and the synergy of internal and external factors. The model of changes in the cognitive resource of heavy truck drivers can be used by dispatching services of motor transport enterprises if biometric monitoring data and current information about the route are available
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $242
OpenAlex ID: W7225073899
FWCI:
Cites: 24
Cited by:
Related to: 10