Work

Global patterns and projected shifts in factors influencing staple crop yield stability

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Climate change is increasingly destabilizing global agricultural systems by amplifying climate variability and intensifying extreme weather and climate events, yet the factors associated with variation in crop yield stability remain insufficiently quantified. Using global crop-yield data at a 0.5° spatial resolution, we developed a multilevel framework integrating random forest modeling and SHAP-based interpretation of predictor contributions at the variable, factor-category, and contribution-direction levels. We quantified associations of climate, management, and soil factors with yield stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, and assessed potential shifts in the leading predictors under three future climate scenarios. Historical yield stability exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Areas with low stability (yield stability <4) accounted for 13.3%, 30.1%, 0.86%, and 8.03% of the cultivated areas of winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, respectively, and were concentrated mainly in low- to mid-latitudes and hot, dry transition zones. Mean climate was the leading factor category associated with historical stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, and soybean, whereas climate variability contributed more prominently for maize. Under future scenarios, global mean yield stability during 2031–2100 was projected to decline by 6–33%, 11–34%, and 13–41% under SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP2–RCP4.5, and SSP5–RCP8.5, respectively. The area fraction in which climate variability or extremes made the largest SHAP contribution increased by more than 30% relative to the historical period, with the greatest expansion under SSP5–RCP8.5. Although management–soil contributions partially offset negative climate contributions in some regions, the projections suggest that maintaining historical conditions may be insufficient to counter future climatic risks. Overall, our results reveal a systematic shift in the leading correlates of yield stability from mean climate toward climate variability and extremes, highlighting escalating risks to global food security.

Source: Ecological Indicators

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115806