Transforming shores: remote sensing analyses of two decades of coastal change in the Arabian Gulf (2001–2021)
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Coastal zones along the Arabian Gulf have experienced extensive urban expansion and land–water transformation over the past two decades, yet comparable Gulf-wide evidence on how these changes vary across national, urban, and local scales remains limited. Building on a previously published regional assessment, this study extends the analysis through normalized comparisons across eight Gulf countries, quantitative assessment of 13 coastal urban centers, and examination of 33 selected 10 × 10 km Focus Zones. Landsat imagery from 2001 to 2021 and Random Forest classification were used to map urbanization, water-to-nonwater transitions, and nonwater-to-water transitions. These transitions are operationally termed reclamation and inundation, respectively, without independently attributing their causes. Regional results indicate approximately 6,827 km 2 of nonurban-to-urban conversion, 1,011 km 2 of water-to-nonwater conversion, and 1,810 km 2 of nonwater-to-water conversion. The added comparisons reveal substantial differences in transformation patterns among countries, coastal urban centers, and selected local settings. Pooled overall classification accuracies were 92.00% for 2001 and 92.96% for 2021. Although mapped nonwater-to-water conversion exceeded the reverse transition regionally, this balance does not independently establish erosion, sea-level rise, permanent land loss, or flood risk. The analysis provides a consistent framework for comparing coastal transformation at regional, national, urban, and local scales, while highlighting the need to distinguish engineered development, natural coastal processes, and acquisition-related differences when interpreting mapped changes. Future work should integrate higher-frequency imagery, tidal normalization, elevation data, and field or very-high-resolution validation to better distinguish engineered, natural, and climate-related coastal processes. This study is therefore framed as a two-date, long-term change assessment based on endpoint comparisons between 2001 and 2021, rather than a continuous time-series analysis of the timing or sequence of change.
Source: Frontiers in Remote Sensing
Authors: Basam Dahy, Rita Sousa, John A. Burt
Institution: New York University Abu Dhabi
Language: English
Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics
Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,077
Funder: New York University Abu Dhabi
OpenAlex ID: W7225107073