Work

Fire risk to U.S. structures nearly triples by mid-century

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Fire is a nationwide crisis, driven by climate change, land use, and continued development into fire-prone landscapes. As these processes blur the boundary between wildland fuels and the built environment, living with fire is becoming a reality for a growing number of communities. We reconstruct fire risk to structures from 1945-2023 and project its evolution through 2060 across the U.S. using high-resolution historical data on area burned, settlement patterns, and fire impacts. Under business-as-usual conditions with no adaptation, structural losses are projected to nearly triple nationwide, with 133,200–449,100 buildings expected to be damaged or destroyed by mid-century. The West remains the epicenter of losses. There, 30% of census tracts projected to face the highest fire risk intersect with socioeconomic hardship, potentially placing the greatest losses in some of the most vulnerable communities. Coupled with an eastward expansion of risk already underway, these findings signal a narrowing window for targeted intervention. Fire increasingly threatens homes across the United States as climate change and development reshape risk. Without adaptation, structural losses could nearly triple by mid-century, with the greatest losses in the West and risk expanding eastward.

Source: Nature Communications

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78904-z