Snow Accumulation Regimes During Nuclear Winter
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Nuclear winter, caused by stratospheric soot injection after a nuclear conflict, would cause sustained cooling lasting years to over a decade. This cooling shifts precipitation from rain to snow and suppresses snowmelt, with largely unexplored consequences for snow storage and runoff. We force a global temperature-index snow model with climate simulations of three nuclear war scenarios (16, 47, and 150 Tg soot) and analyze runoff in six major river basins. Global snow storage peaks four to six years after the injection and remains slightly above control levels after 15 years. Three regional patterns emerge: new seasonal snowpacks, prolonged snow seasons, and multi-year accumulation at high latitudes. Larger snowpacks raise spring runoff peaks in the Rhine and Tigris-Euphrates, while high-latitude accumulation suppresses snowmelt elsewhere. These shifts would increase the potential for spring floods and prolonged low flows, affecting drinking water supply and irrigation.
Authors: Eric Wöstenberg, Florian Ulrich Jehn
Institutions: Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen, FernUniversität in Hagen
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225190067