The Axiomatic Theory of Financial-Market Valuation, Human-Welfare Divergence and Agentic Systemic Risk
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: ANOA — Essay VIII | Version 1.0 The Axiomatic Theory of Financial-Market Valuation, Human-Welfare Divergence and Agentic Systemic Risk This independent theoretical working paper develops an axiomatic and mathematical framework for examining the relationship between financial-market valuation, human welfare, autonomous economic agents, and systemic stability in AI-native economies. The research demonstrates, under explicit assumptions, that equity-market valuation and human welfare are not generally equivalent objectives. It establishes conditions for their alignment and divergence, examines the limitations of financial prices as indicators of human prosperity, and introduces a multidimensional accounting framework distinguishing financial claims, real resources, economic representations, human capabilities, and systemic risk. The paper further develops models of agentic coordination, correlated decision-making, financial contagion, liquidity amplification, and distributed-network instability. Conditional mathematical results show how individually stable autonomous components may generate unstable collective dynamics, while distinguishing local instability from actual financial collapse. Inflationary transmission, employment displacement, monetary-policy controllability, and protocol-based stabilization are examined through explicitly conditional models. The extended framework connects the ANOA research programme with the emerging Machine-Native Economy, including autonomous intelligence, programmable payments, computational infrastructure, distributed applications, and interoperable economic networks. It draws conceptual comparisons with BlackRock's research on machine-native economic infrastructure and with institutional financial-stability literature. Building upon ANOA Essays I–VII, particularly the theory of Global Protocol Federalism and Constitutional Order, the paper introduces human custodianship as a fundamental institutional constraint: autonomous systems may execute economic operations, but legitimate human and institutional authority, fundamental rights, accountability, contestability, and effective remedies must remain protected. The paper proposes falsifiable hypotheses, financial-network stress-testing methods, and a research agenda for evaluating economic resilience and human welfare beyond conventional market capitalization and aggregate financial indicators. Research status: Independent theoretical working paper, not peer reviewed. Mathematical findings are conditional on their stated assumptions. Numerical illustrations are not empirical market estimates. References to BlackRock and public financial institutions indicate analytical comparison, not endorsement or institutional affiliation. Copyright: © 2026 Marco Patrone. All rights reserved.
Author: Patrone, Marco
Language: English
Topic: Economic theories and models
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225270472
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