On the Convexity of Common Resource Adequacy and Capacity Accreditation Metrics
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Many emerging capacity expansion optimization formulations implicitly presume the convexity (or concavity) of power system adequacy risk (or capacity accreditation) metrics. These assumptions have yet to be formally justified. We present concise mathematical proofs validating the claim for certain metrics (expected unserved energy and effective load carrying capability), but also provide simple invalidating counterexamples for others (loss-of-load expectation and equivalent firm capacity). Formulations built on non-convex (non-concave) metrics structurally undervalue candidate portfolio adequacy, and so cannot claim to produce least-cost expansion plans.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Stephen, Gord
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225271664