Work

Socio-ecological analysis of water availability in three agricultural basins of central Chile

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The central region of Chile, a biodiversity hotspot, faces severe challenges as intensifying meteorological drought and agricultural expansion interact to disrupt the hydrographic dynamics of the socio-ecological system. This study explored the spatiotemporal variation of socio-ecological characteristics across the three primary agricultural basins of the Valparaíso Region: Aconcagua, La Ligua, and Petorca, and evaluated the relationships between precipitation deficits, socioeconomic drivers (well levels, water use rights, cleared native forest area, agricultural GDP, and export fruit volume), and streamflow. Temporal trends were quantified using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models captured the interaction between climate variability and socioeconomic variables on streamflow percentage anomalies, incorporating time as a covariate. The results reveal a significant decreasing trend in streamflow rates across all three studied basins, indicating that precipitation-mediated water inputs are declining. Concurrently, all socioeconomic variables have increased significantly due to institutional incentives for agricultural production. The OLS models demonstrate that streamflow depletion is associated not only with meteorological drought but also with its compounding interaction with agricultural expansion, exhibiting a distinct south-to-north geographic gradient in hydrological resilience. The observed dynamics range from climate-amplifying processes in the south to buffering phenomena in the north that artificially flatten the hydrological system, effectively neutralizing the benefits of rainfall. Furthermore, time-series analysis revealed an underlying, persistent negative trend restricted to the northern basins, signifying a fundamental alteration in streamflow responses to climate variability modulated by underlying socioeconomic pressures. These discrepancies may stem from localized rainfall regimes or the overarching influence of water institutions and the dominant agro-export model. Addressing this critical situation requires a paradigm shift toward decentralized, adaptive governance frameworks that recognize physical basin boundaries, social uses, and localized geographic dynamics to ensure socio-ecological sustainability.

Source: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1870155

Authors: Carla Rivera-Rebella, Mauricio Lima, Eduardo C. Arellano

Institution: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Climate action, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,353