Work

Desempeño comparativo de Holt-Winters y Prophet en la predicción de la demanda eléctrica en sistemas de distribución y alumbrado público

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Accurate electricity demand forecasting supports operational planning and energy-efficiency decisions in distribution systems. This study compares the additive Holt-Winters and Prophet models applied to public lighting demand in Cotopaxi, Ecuador, using an institutional inventory of 52,365 luminaires from 2012 to 2020. The inventory was transformed into a monthly theoretical energy series through data cleaning, calendar-based energy calculation and a dynamic replacement rule for the transition from mercury and sodium lamps to LED technology. The models were implemented in Python and evaluated with MAPE, RMSE and R². Holt-Winters obtained lower short-term error, whereas Prophet better represented the 2019 LED structural change; therefore, both models are useful for complementary operational and strategic planning.

Source: Revista Ciencias de la Ingeniería y Aplicadas - CIYA (Impresa).

DOI: 10.61236/qd0p8f87

Authors: Galo Tapia Estrella, Nancy Rodríguez Sánchez, Carlos Ramiro Corrales Tapia, Alex Danilo Panchi Guamangallo, Mauricio Eduardo Mullo Pallo

Institutions: Universidad Indoamérica, Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

OpenAlex ID: W7225314881

FWCI:

Cites: 3

Cited by:

Related to: 10