Work

VTS Decision Support Through Bayesian Inference of Vessel Passage Probabilities in Busan North Port

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Vessel traffic services (VTSs) in ports require interpretable information on vessel approaches and travel times where shared fairways branch toward multiple destinations. This study presents a gate-based Bayesian method for VTS decision support in Busan North Port. Automatic Identification System (AIS) and Port Management Information System (PORT-MIS) records from September 2024 to August 2025 were linked. Density-based clustering of turning locations and examination of traffic functions informed the placement of 22 virtual gates. A Bayesian network with 20 binary gate-passage variables was constructed from 7194 inbound trajectories. The probability of shared-fairway passage given a passenger-terminal approach was approximately 99.9%, whereas the reverse conditional probability was 20.55%. These results distinguish shared passage locations associated with a known approach from approaches associated with an observed passage. Three illustrative routes had annual mean travel times of 6.22, 6.52, and 13.38 min. Speed-conditioned travel-time probabilities were estimated from the data. On the main-fairway route, arrival in less than 6 min had a probability of 91.01% at departure speeds of 10–<12 kts. The method provides location-specific passage probabilities and route-specific travel-time information for interpreting observed traffic. Validation of predictive performance and benefits for controller decision-making remains necessary.

Source: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

DOI: 10.3390/jmse14212092

Authors: Hyungoo Park, Sangwon Park, Youngsoo Park, Sewoong Oh, Daewon Kim

Institutions: Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Chonnam National University, Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering

Language: English

Topic: Maritime Navigation and Safety

Subfield: Ocean Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137