Education Expenditure, Tertiary Enrollment and Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: an Augmented Solow and Ardl Approach
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of education expenditure and tertiary enrollment on GDP per capita in Uzbekistan over 1999–2025. The augmented Solow model of Mankiw, Romer and Weil [15] provides the theoretical framework, and the empirical analysis combines ordinary least squares (OLS), the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and distributed-lag models (unrestricted DL and Almon polynomial distributed lags, PDL). Gross tertiary enrollment rose from 8.6% in 2017 to 59.8% in 2025, an almost sevenfold increase, yet its effect on growth is lagged rather than immediate: the short-run effect is negative (γ₁ = −6.45; p = 0.034), a positive reversal appears in the second year (γ₂ = +3.81; p = 0.096), and the cumulative multiplier is still negative. The bounds test does not confirm long-run cointegration. Education spending has a positive effect on growth with a one-year lag (+3.40; p = 0.078). The results suggest that the expansion of enrollment must be matched by gains in education quality and spending efficiency.
Authors: Nilufar Mardonova, Bobur Farmonov
Institution: Tashkent State University of Economics
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225325535