Certified AC Dispatch over Load Sets and in Continuous Time: Verified Feasibility and Optimality Gaps
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: An optimal power flow dispatch is computed for one forecast load but operated while loads change and automatic generation control absorbs forecast errors. We certify operation over load sets: a parametric Krawczyk test proves a power-flow solution for a dispatch or affine policy, Taylor models prove every limit, and load-affine Lagrangian bounds bound its relative regret by ε, with the bound maximized exactly over the set. Each piece of a ramped schedule under a box of regional forecast errors is such a set. On eight benchmark systems at ε = 1%, a rule interpolating three optimal power flows is certified for ±5% load-level swings at 78% of the test loads on average, against 57% for a secant through them and 44% for participation factors. Under the hourly optimal dispatch, some sampled one-percent regional error violates an operational threshold in 44% of the hours; certificate-designed schedules are certified on 98.0% of the time along the forecast and, with one balancing unit, proven feasible under every such error on 54.0% (none on three systems, at least 98.8% on four). On a modified 2000-bus Texas grid, 98.6% of 1272 hours are certified along the forecast.
Author: Shen, Yuan
Institution: University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225325610