Work

Modal Fragility and Counterfactual Causation

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: One of today’s foremost counterfactual analyses draws many causal links where it shouldn’t—not only towards the future, but also towards the past. The root of these problems is that unlikely events are too modally fragile to ground reasonable causal claims. However, I will argue that these issues arise just as readily for likely events, spelling double trouble for this analysis. By recentring this approach around probabilities instead, causation tracks structure whose modal robustness justifies its name, sidestepping the old problems and the new.

Source: Erkenntnis

DOI: 10.1007/s10670-026-01174-0

Author: Athamos Stradis

Institution: University of Cologne

Language: English

Topic: Philosophy of Biology and Scientific Explanation

Subfield: History and Philosophy of Science

Field: Arts and Humanities

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,290

Funder: Universität zu Köln