Work

From Flood Susceptibility to Adaptation Priorities in an Arid City‐Region: Evidence From Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT Flood susceptibility maps identify potentially affected land but provide limited guidance on the form of adaptation. We examined how susceptibility can inform urban retrofit, landscape retention and protection priorities in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Nine environmental predictors supported a Random Forest model trained on a synthetic mask derived from terrain, wetness and urban‐runoff rules. Land context and allocation rules defined 104.5 km 2 of principal candidates and 128.8 km 2 of advisory support. Urban and peri‐urban land contained 99.3% of retrofit and 99.5% of protection core, whereas 64.5% of retention lay in the wider region. Varying synthetic‐mask thresholds by ±20% changed principal area from 19.5 to 112.5 km 2 , indicating substantial dependence on modelling assumptions. April 2024 reports provided contextual plausibility evidence, not independent validation against a systematic flood inventory. The framework connects relative susceptibility with differentiated planning responses and identifies where hydraulic, land‐ownership and implementation appraisal should begin.

Source: Sustainable Development

DOI: 10.1002/sd.71877