The welfare and productivity losses associated with the death of an index case of Ebola Bundibugyo Virus Disease reported in Kenya on 6 October 2026
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Introduction: Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease (EBVD) was imported into Kenya from the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 3 October 2026. Economic evidence is lacking to inform Kenya’s Ministry of Health’s advocacy for domestic and external investment to bolster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and response to EBVD. This study aimed to estimate, from an economy-wide (societal) perspective, the discounted welfare and productivity losses associated with the death of the index case of EBVD in Kenya on 6 October 2026. Methods Drawing on various secondary sources, this study uses the human capital approach (HCA), the willingness-to-pay small (WTP_S) and large (WTP_L) models, and the willingness-to-accept small (WTA_S) and large (WTA_L) models to estimate discounted welfare and productivity losses associated with the death of the index case of EBVD in Kenya. To assess the robustness of the results, the five models were each re-estimated four times, assuming (i) a 5% discount rate, (ii) a 10% discount rate, (iii) Africa’s highest male average life expectancy at birth, 74.55 years in Tunisia, and (iv) the world’s highest male average life expectancy, 84.78 years in Monaco. Results Under the HCA model, the death of the 40-year-old male patient is expected to result in a total welfare loss of Int$120,944 and a productivity loss of Int$40,763. Using the implied WTP approach, the expected welfare loss would be between Int$423,302 and Int$786,133, with a productivity loss of between Int$142,669 and Int$264,957. Applying the implied WTA approach yields a welfare loss of Int$1,269,907 to Int$4,051,608 and a productivity loss of Int$428,007 to Int$1,365,546. Re-estimating the HCA, WTP_S, WTP_L, WTA_S, and WTA_L models with 5% and 10% discount rates reduced the estimated welfare and productivity losses by about 17% and 45%, respectively. Re-running the welfare and productivity loss models with Africa's and the world’s highest male life expectancies increased the welfare loss estimates by about 35% and 54%, respectively. Conclusions The death of the index case of EBVD in Kenya will likely lead to significant welfare and productivity losses. Kenya’s Ministry of Health should continue advocacy with the whole-of-government, the private sector, civil society, and development partners to urgently increase investment to bridge gaps in International Health Regulations core capacities, universal health coverage, and WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene), thereby mitigating the risk of EBVD becoming a national epidemic.
Source: Research Square
Author: Joses Muthuri Kirigia
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225379527