Vegetation cover dynamics in the Modder River Basin, South Africa: evidence from climate drivers and land cover during the 2015–2024
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Dynamic changes in vegetation cover within semi-arid inland river basins are crucial for understanding global climate change and regional ecological security. This study investigated spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and climatic drivers in South Africa's Modder River Basin (2015–2024) using GEE, Landsat 8, MODIS, and pixel binning. Findings indicate: (1) temporally, vegetation cover shows fluctuating increase followed by local degradation, with sharp NDVI/FVC declines during the 2015–2016 El Niño; (2) spatially, NDVI/FVC decrease east to west, forming strip-like distributions along the river corridor, with short-term NDVI peaks supported by precipitation in eastern grasslands; (3) precipitation and surface temperature are highly sensitive drivers, with extreme climate events amplifying vegetation vulnerability in semi-arid ecosystems; (4) land cover transformation causes spatially differentiated vegetation responses, with natural vegetation more climate-sensitive than human-induced vegetation, and differing response mechanisms between shrub forests and grasslands; (5) MODIS analysis reveals significantly increased growing-season cumulative NDVI, despite non-significant trends in FVC; vegetation exhibits a rapid respond to precipitation within 0–2 months, while water deficit are consistently associated with vegetation stress and VPD scale-dependent effects. This study quantifies vegetation dynamics in semi-arid South Africa under accelerated climate change, highlighting non-equilibrium ecological responses and providing a scientific basis for SDG 15 (land ecology).
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,390
OpenAlex ID: W7225413368