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The impact of eco-innovation, trade, natural resource rents and economic growth on energy consumption in the BRICS

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Energy transitions in the BRICS economies require evidence on how technological, trade, resource, and growth dynamics shape aggregate and disaggregated energy demand. This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of eco-innovation, trade openness, natural resource rents, and economic growth on total, fossil-fuel, and renewable energy consumption in the BRICS during 2000–2020. A cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag model provides the principal estimates, supported by the augmented mean group estimator, Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests, double/debiased machine learning, method of moments quantile regression, Bayesian hierarchical modelling, structural-break detection, and machine-learning interpretation. The CS-ARDL results indicate that eco-innovation reduces total and fossil-fuel consumption while increasing renewable energy use in both horizons. Trade reduces total and fossil-fuel consumption, although its renewable-energy coefficient is positive but statistically insignificant. Natural resource rents and economic growth reduce total energy consumption, whereas their effects differ across fossil and renewable energy measures. Significant negative error-correction terms confirm adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. The supplementary analyses reveal pronounced heterogeneity: quantile estimates vary across the energy-consumption distribution, Bayesian intervals show substantial cross-country uncertainty, and machine-learning results identify nonlinear thresholds. Causality is bidirectional between total energy use and trade, renewable energy use and eco-innovation, and fossil-fuel use and trade, with additional one-way relationships across the model. Overall, the evidence suggests that BRICS energy policy should combine sustained eco-innovation support with country-specific trade, resource-revenue, and growth strategies. Uniform bloc-wide policies are unlikely to be effective because transition pathways depend on national structures and consumption levels. Resource revenues should support renewable infrastructure and economic diversification.
DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-05152-y
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,390
OpenAlex ID: W7225420370
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