Optimizing the Composition and Distribution of the Tax Burden: Ardl–ecm Evidence for Uzbekistan
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This conference paper evaluates how the balance between direct and indirect taxes relates to economic growth and the shadow economy in Uzbekistan. The direct-to-indirect tax ratio (DT/IT) is examined using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and error-correction specifications. The growth-oriented models yield turning points of 75.50% and 76.74%, whereas the shadow-economy specification yields 90.15%. These distinct optima reveal a policy trade-off rather than a single universally optimal tax structure. A coordinated strategy is proposed to strengthen equitable incidence, economic adaptability and formalization. The findings are interpreted as specification-dependent associations, not independently identified causal effects.
Author: Rakhmonov Azizjon
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225452485