Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Global Surface Temperature Anomalies: an Observational Analysis of Annual Associations
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This analysis examines whether global associations between greenhouse gas concentrations and surface temperature anomalies persist when annual levels are replaced by annual changes. NOAA concentration measurements and NASA temperature estimates provide 16 annual observations covering 2010 to 2025 and 15 consecutive annual differences. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, Spearman correlations and exploratory observation omission checks distinguish sustained correspondence from annual variability. Level correlations are consistently positive, ranging from 0.863 to 0.873. Annual change correlations are weaker: 0.238 for carbon dioxide, 0.126 for methane and negative 0.167 for nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide retains a positive direction across omission checks, whereas methane varies substantially in magnitude and nitrous oxide changes direction under one omission. All three concentrations increase throughout the period, while temperature declines in five annual comparisons. These findings distinguish shared trajectories from contemporaneous annual correspondence without identifying separate causal contributions. The contribution is a transparent comparison of temporal representations and observation sensitivity, supporting climate assessments that report sustained change separately from annual fluctuations and avoid interpreting descriptive correlations as physical attribution.
Author: Kannan Vishwanath & Lloyd Zulu
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225454062