Work

Institutional Trust, Inflation Expectations, and Tax Discipline: Implications for the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policy in Uzbekistan

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This article examines whether household and business inflation expectations in Uzbekistan are rational and anchored, and through which behavioral channels limited institutional trust weakens the transmission of macroeconomic policy. Using the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's monthly expectations survey and official monetary statistics for January 2018–December 2025, the study applies Mincer–Zarnowitz tests, period-specific sensitivity regressions, Jordà local projections, Toda–Yamamoto causality tests, and an ARDL error-correction model. The results support complementing interest rate policy with trust-building communication and trust-based tax compliance instruments.

Source: ECONOSCITECH INTEGRATION

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24041882

Author: Hakimova, Mushtariybonu Hamid qizi

Institution: Tashkent State University of Economics

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: diamond

OpenAlex ID: W7225462494

FWCI:

Cites:

Cited by:

Related to: 10