From One Date to a Take-Off Point: A Simple Quadratic Model for Predicting Digital Conflict Escalation, Case Study of Knetz vs SEAblings, 31 January – 15 February 2026
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Digital conflicts are often analyzed only after they explode, using big-data monitoring systems that require massive crawling, complex network analysis, and high computational cost. This study proposes the opposite approach: can the take-off point of a digital conflict be predicted from a single start date, using only one simple formula? The model tested is f(x) = -x² + 45x + 1/4, where x is a weekly time index and f(x) is the duration in hours from the start date to the take-off point. The case study is the Knetz vs SEAblings conflict, which started on 31 January 2026. The model predicts a take-off point on 8 February 2026 at 08:15 WIB. This prediction is validated against the complete data from Drone Emprit / Ismail Fahmi for 7–15 February 2026, which shows that Twitter volume remained flat on 7 February, began to rise on 8–9 February, formed a first hill on 9 February, a second hill on 11 February, and reached its highest peak on 15 February. The difference between the predicted and empirical take-off points is less than one day. The results demonstrate that a simple, low-cost, and transparent model can serve as an early warning system, complementary to big-data systems such as Drone Emprit, which remain essential for explaining actors, networks, and narratives after the take-off occurs. Keywords: digital conflict, take-off prediction, quadratic model, Knetz, SEAblings, Drone Emprit, Twitter
Author: Sembiring, Heryanto
Language: English
Topic: Social Media and Politics
Subfield: Communication
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225566102