The Global Contribution of Polycrisis Resilience Through 2100
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This report presents a prospective, scenario-based assessment of the global contribution of “Polycrisis Resilience,” a framework Hunter Hughes of H Heuristics formalized and published online in 2026. The framework builds on the diagnostic concept of the “polycrisis” (Morin, 1999; Tooze, 2022) by adding an operational response: six lifecycle capacities (risk reduction, prevention, absorption, recovery, adaptation, transformation), a Resilience Multiplier (2.35×–3.25×) for cross-sector investments, and two suffering metrics, Cumulative Human Exposure Reduction (CHER) and the Human Suffering Reduction Dividend (HSRD).Using the authors’ HH-PRM v2.0-ATTR model (5,000 Monte Carlo simulations, 28 parameters), the report first estimates a global envelope for coordinated resilience investment of about 1% of world GDP between 2026 and 2100. That envelope comprises:368 million premature deaths prevented (90% uncertainty interval: 265–448M), of which 136 million come from coordinated rather than siloed design221 billion person-years of reduced hazardous exposure and deprivationUS$200–296 trillion in avoided lossesProtection of roughly 3.4 billion of the 4.85 billion people projected to face high survivability risk in 2100The report then separates this envelope from the marginal share attributable to the framework’s publication. It does so through five counterfactual attribution tiers (0.01% to 10%) and two channels: shifting spending from siloed to coordinated design (~58%) and accelerating action during 2026–2035 (~42%), with each year of delay costing an estimated 8.3 million lives. Attributable estimates range from 36,800 lives, 22.1 million person-years, and US$20–30 billion at the most conservative tier. At the central tier (1–2.5%) they reach 3.7–9.2 million lives, 2.2–5.5 billion person-years, and US$2.0–7.4 trillion. At the highest tier (5–10%) they reach 18.4–36.8 million lives, 11.1–22.1 billion person-years, and US$10–29.6 trillion.The authors state that all figures are forward-looking counterfactual scenarios rather than realized outcomes. They also list six conditions for realization, including independent scholarly validation, adoption by multilateral development banks, and integration into green-transition project appraisal.
Source: Figshare
Author: Hunter Hughes
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225576738