Examining Associations Between Annual Market Volatility Conditions and Equity Returns Using Historical Financial Market Data
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This analysis examines whether alternative summaries of market volatility yield consistent interpretations of annual equity performance, informing international debates on risk measurement. Published historical data provide 16 complete annual observations for the United States equity market from 2010 to 2025. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, Spearman correlations, and exploratory exclusions of individual years compare annual mean, intraday peak, and intraday floor VIX with S&P 500 total returns. Mean VIX exhibits the strongest inverse Pearson association at negative 0.407, while peak VIX exhibits the strongest inverse Spearman association at negative 0.371. Both retain negative Pearson correlations under every individual year exclusion. Floor VIX displays a near zero rank association and changes Pearson direction when one influential year is excluded. Extreme volatility also coexists with positive annual returns, distinguishing episode intensity from completed annual performance. The contribution is a comparison showing that volatility summaries are not interchangeable and that interpretation depends on measurement and association criteria. These descriptive findings support separate reporting of average conditions and extremes, accompanied by sensitivity checks, without establishing causality or forecasting performance
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225578258