Assessing the impact of environmental factors on food production in Somalia
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Food production in Somalia is increasingly affected by climate pressures, agricultural land use, trade exposure, and the structure of economic growth. This study examines the effects of CO₂ emissions, rainfall, temperature, agricultural land use, trade openness, and GDP on food production in Somalia. Food production is measured using the World Bank’s Food Production Index (FPI), and the analysis draws on 43 annual observations covering 1980–2022. Somalia provides an important context because of its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and pastoral livelihoods, alongside its vulnerability to drought, rising temperatures, land-use pressure, and food-import dependence. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach, the study identifies a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The results show that CO₂ emissions and temperature reduce food production in the long run, indicating that climate-related pressures weaken agricultural capacity over time. Rainfall has a positive but statistically insignificant long-run effect, whereas its short-run effect is positive and significant, underscoring the immediate importance of seasonal precipitation. Agricultural land use, measured by arable land in hectares, has a positive effect on food production. This finding reflects the productive contribution of cultivated land and possible agricultural expansion, rather than suggesting that environmental degradation improves food production. Trade openness supports food production in the long run but reduces it in the short run, while GDP has a negative long-run effect. The study recommends climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable land management, decentralized water-management systems, and economic policies that channel growth toward domestic agricultural production. Not applicable. This study was not a clinical trial.
Source: Discover Environment
Institution: Mogadishu University
Language: English
Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,390
OpenAlex ID: W7225611602