Natural Procreative Hygiene as an Excluded Variable in Neoclassical Growth Theory: Evidence and Accounting Implications
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Orthodox growth economics has never contained a variable for Natural Procreative Hygiene (NPH): the timing, spacing, and readiness conditions of human procreation. This absence is treated as a neutral boundary of the discipline. It is not neutral. When the discipline's own machinery is examined, two facts emerge. First, the one variable the models do carry for procreation, population growth, is uniformly and negatively associated with income per capita across every pattern of economic growth ever measured, including a 2014 University of Baghdad panel study of ninety-five countries, 1980 to 2010, where the coefficient is negative and statistically significant in all four country groups. Second, the accounting framework in which these models report their results counts the treatment of disease, incarceration, and remediation as production, and counts health maintained as nothing. The combination produces a standing paradox that the discipline cannot state without dismantling its own metric: overpopulation generates poverty, while disease and pain increase the economic statistics. The essay argues that NPH is absent from education and growth models not because it was measured and found insignificant, but because introducing it would invert the ledger: it would raise human well-being and lower disease and pain, and it would lower the recorded statistics of the establishments that profit from human misery.
Author: George Kasey
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225614967
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: