Knotenlinie: global forward test 2027–2034 (Türkiye excluded), H(2026) vs GEAR1 recipe — preregistration (RAPOR-5)
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Preregistration of a forward (prospective) test of a global long-term earthquake forecast H(2026) against a GEAR1-recipe competitor, both built with information up to 2026-01-01 (exclusive) from a GCMT catalogue that excludes the Türkiye region. Window 2027–2034, M ≥ 5.95, depth ≤ 70 km, Türkiye masked; two looks with a fixed threshold. Files: the binding Turkish text RAPOR-5.md, its English translation RAPOR-5.en.md, RAPOR-4.md (sections binding by reference), and the SHA-256 fingerprint list of the frozen package (DONDUR.json sha256 15442b09e455b261f65297b65fe2a49bd6b4eb2f7d2c1bdce09fc7e7711947f0; OpenTimestamps-stamped in the project repository). Forecast files are not included before the window is scored.
Author: Knotenlinie contributors
Language: English
Subfield: Geophysics
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225616532
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