Work

BID Modeling vs STAN: 8-Candidate Polling Benchmark

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This benchmark evaluates Discretized Bayesian Induction (BID / BIDSim) against Continuous MCMC (Stan / NUTS) on an 8-candidate political opinion polling model. Both methods incorporate empirical historical baselines via Maximum Entropy (Maxent) priors and evaluate candidate vote shares under strict probability conservation.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24081412

Author: Pargamin, Bernard

Language: English

Topic: Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7225617287

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