A Semiotic-Quantitative Model of the Jerusalem Conflict: 45 Centuries of Horizontal Formation and 45 Years of Vertical Polarization (1967-2012) and (1980-2025)
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper proposes a novel semiotic-quantitative model to describe the modern Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Jerusalem. The model operates on two temporal scales: a horizontal span of 45 centuries (3000 BC - 1500 AD) representing the physical formation of the Old City, and a vertical span of 45 years representing its legal-political enclosure. The analysis begins with the biblical enumeration: 819 mentions of Jerusalem in the Indonesian translation (TB). Subtracting 3 heavenly references (Revelation 3:12, 21:2, Hebrews 12:22) yields 816 = 16 x 17 x 3, which maps to a three-phase historical taxonomy. For Phase 2 (135 AD - 2012), we develop a quadratic model f(x) = -x² + 45x + c, 0 ≤ c < 0.75, under the principle of parsimony. The model exhibits a symmetry axis at x = 22.5 years. For the 1967-2012 cycle, the axis corresponds to December 1989 - June 1990 (collapse of the Israeli national unity government, peak of the First Intifada). For the 1980-2025 cycle, the axis corresponds to June-July 2002 (death of the Oslo Accords). The vertex y = 506.25 is interpreted semiotically as the ideal number of physical closure points, matching UN OCHA mid-2002 reports of 505-506 obstacles, which numerically exceeds the 488-meter length of the Western Wall. The definite integral between roots, 15,198.75, is interpreted as cumulative systemic burden.
Author: Sembiring, Heryanto
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225638115
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