QUADRATIC MODELING OF FERTILIZER SUPPLY CONCENTRATION RISK: MATHEMATICAL SEMIOTIC MODELING — A CONSERVATIVE EXTENSION OF THE JP MORGAN COMPOUNDING STORM FRAMEWORK (42% vs 45% SCENARIO) AND HISTORICAL USDA VALIDATION
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive risk model for global food security arising from nitrogen fertilizer supply concentration in the Middle East. The research is anchored on two authoritative sources: (1) JP Morgan’s 2026 reports “Food Security Under Pressure” and “Food Security is National Security: A Compounding Storm” by Dr. Sarah Kapnick and Senior Economist Nora Szentivanyi, and (2) USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) historical cost data. The study proposes a novel quadratic optimization model f(x) = -x^2 + 45x + 1/4 derived in November 2025 (YouTube Publication: International Paper RESEARCH II - 2026 Tahun Diskriminasi Reaktif) from discriminant analysis D = b^2 - 4ac, where 2026 = 45^2 - 4ac. The vertex at x = 22.5% and f(x) = 506.5 unifies all parameters. The coefficient 45 represents worst-case Middle East urea supply concentration vs 42% JP Morgan baseline and 27% for ammonia. Validated against USDA: 17% low (2017-2021), 22% avg (2006-2016), 24% 2022 spike, 26% peak 2008. For wheat: 35% avg share (2006-2021), 44.7% peak in 2022, and 38.7% in 2023. The f(x) value of 506.5 ($/acre) is validated as total operating cost, slightly above USDA’s actual 2023 cost of $479.74/acre, yielding fertilizer absolute cost of $113.85/acre (22.5% of 506.5). The 3% differential between 45% and 42% translates to 6 million tons of urea, 27.6 million hectares and potentially pushing global food inflation from JP Morgan’s projected 2.8% (H1 2026) to 5% (H1 2027), adding 0.6 percentage point to US headline inflation. KEYWORDS : Food Security, Urea, Strait of Hormuz, JP Morgan, USDA ERS, Quadratic Model, Discriminant, Pemodelan Semiotika Matematis
Author: Sembiring, Heryanto
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225649708
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