Standings-Based Weighted Probability Model for Football Match Outcome Prediction
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This paper presents a transparent, deterministic probability model for predicting football match outcomes, implemented in the Futbolchi.com sports analytics platform. The model computes match outcome probabilities using a Standings-Based Weighted Probability approach, where each team's competitive strength is derived from league standings points and goal difference. Core formula: Strength = Points + GD × 0.1, P(A) = S_A / (S_A + S_B) The model is applied across 9 football competitions (Uzbekistan Superliga, Champions League, La Liga, Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Europa League, Conference League), processing data from the API-Football v3 provider in real time. We describe the mathematical formulation, data pipeline, implementation details (Next.js 15, TypeScript), coverage scope, known limitations (no draw probability, no home advantage), and a roadmap for future enhancements including xG integration and home advantage coefficients. Full methodology also available in Uzbek: https://futbolchi.com/metodologiya
Author: Futbolchi.com Research Team
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225652556
FWCI:
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: