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CFP-R4 Survives Severe Tests on Inflation Expectations and Climate Belief

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Route 4 of the Correction Freeze Problem (CFP), the information limit, survived every falsifier set for it in two new tests, on inflation expectations and on climate belief. Both tests were designed and run independently of how CFP was formulated and of any wish for it to pass: the predictions were derived from CFP’s own text and fixed before the data were opened. The inflation test used official monthly data for 2000-2026 (University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, BLS CPI-U, EIA gasoline prices). Route 4 predicts that people detect large, salient price changes and miss the slow monthly trend, and the data show exactly that pattern: a) In the 42 months when gasoline moved 10% or more, expected inflation moved in the same direction 94% of the time, against 62% in other months. b) Changes in expectations matched the direction of the monthly CPI trend 51% of the time, which is chance level and close to the predicted best-possible accuracy of 0.525. The climate test matched 37,417 respondents of the Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey (2008-2025) to NOAA regional temperatures. It separated long-term regional warming from the most recent 12 months of weather. Belief that global warming is happening showed no positive response to the long-term trend, as Route 4 predicts; the pre-registered falsifier was not triggered. Two findings qualify these results: 1) The monthly CPI trend has a small but statistically real effect on the level of expectations. 2) Recent weather moved climate belief in the predicted direction, but not significantly. Expectations track inflation already experienced (correlation 0.74) far more closely than inflation still to come (0.32). Route 4 is therefore alive: it was exposed to independent data and could have failed, and it did not. These results are survival, not final confirmation. The decisive tests, at county level and before new data are released, are specified and within reach. The other three routes of CFP (threshold ratchet, cost collapse and ambiguity substitution) remain untested, because the data needed to identify their parameters are not yet available.
DOI: 10.17613/k58v2-6fn44
Institution: Phenikaa University
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225693720
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