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What is the Best Nerdle Starting Equation? An Exact Analysis of All 17,723 Openers

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: A follow-up to "The Probability of Solving Nerdle in Exactly Two Guesses," which found that 52-34=18 gives the best chance of solving Nerdle on the second guess. That opener is not necessarily the best overall. Scoring all 17,723 possible openers, we show that 54-36=18 gives the lowest average number of guesses under perfect play (3.0194, or 2.9468 when commutative answers are accepted), and an exhaustive check proves no other opener does as well. The margins among the top openers are very small.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24121895

Author: Harding, Sean

Language: English

Topic: Probability and Statistical Research

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7225707766

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