An Event-Scale Fermi Estimation Model (ES-FEM) for Rapid Feasibility Assessment of Public Park Events
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Evaluating feasibility and attendance projections for public park events is crucial for municipal planning, crowd safety, and resource allocation. Due to inherent uncertainty and lack of historical data in early-stage planning, precise forecasting is challenging. This paper proposes a rapid feasibility-screening framework—the Event-Scale Fermi Estimation Model (ES-FEM)—to evaluate whether projected attendance levels are physically and demographically plausible. By integrating spatial parameters, simultaneous crowd density, temporal turnover rates, demand-side marketing funnels, and infrastructure bottlenecks (min(N_space, N_infra, N_market)), ES-FEM provides an order-of-magnitude assessment under limited-information conditions. Drawing epistemological parallels with finite element method (FEM) preliminary sizing and cross-disciplinary order estimation, the model bridges the gap between rough back-of-the-envelope calculations and urban engineering constraints.
Author: STUDENT, By
Language: English
Topic: Sport and Mega-Event Impacts
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225733301
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: