The Life Term, Widened: What Relaxing the Carbon-and-Water Assumption Does to the Fermi Conclusion
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: The familiar pessimistic reading of the Fermi question rests on two assumptions: that the Drake life term counts only carbon-based life in liquid water, and that our searches have examined enough of the relevant space for their silence to carry weight. This paper splits the Drake life factor into disjoint classes - carbon-and-water life, carbon chemistry in alternative solvents (ammonia, methane/ethane, concentrated sulphuric acid, liquid and supercritical carbon dioxide), and alternative backbones (silicon) - each priced against its published plausibility assessment, and quantifies the detection term from published search-volume work. Widening is a genuine multiplier for alternative solvents (of order 1.1-2) and a negligible one for silicon (at most 1.05), whose published chemical objections are severe. All radio searches to date cover a fraction 5.8e-18 of the standard eight-dimensional search space, so even a transmitter at every star would have an expected detection count of 5.8e-7 by now, and the observed silence shifts a 30 percent prior probability of being alone by only about 1.2e-7. The pessimistic conclusion is therefore not forced by present evidence. Nothing in the paper is evidence that extraterrestrial life exists, in any chemistry.
Author: Aldred, William Alexander
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225745411
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: