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National burden of lung cancer in Kazakhstan: a 10-year cohort study

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Background Lung cancer (LC) remains a global health concern, requiring updates on patterns over time. This study evaluated the burden of LC in Kazakhstan, where data are notably sparse. Methods Using the National Cancer Registry data from 2014 to 2023, we evaluated age-standardized incidence, all-cause mortality, and prevalence rates, as well as rates for early-stage LC detection, and calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) for all measures. We employed restricted mean survival time (RMST) models to evaluate the impact of clinical and demographic factors on survival during the one month through the fifth year following LC diagnosis. We also benchmarked our estimates against the Global Burden Study (GBD). Findings This study included 39,071 patients. The AAPC for incidence, mortality, and prevalence rates were −2.27% (95% CI, −3.28% to −1.23%), 3.51% (95% CI, −0.76% to 7.97%), and 12.69% (95% CI, 7.53%–18.09%), respectively. LC was diagnosed at advanced stages, with 73.09% classified as stage III and IV, with an AAPC for early-stage detection rates of 0.27% (95% CI, −0.81% to 1.31%). The median follow-up time was 1930 days (reverse Kaplan–Meier method). The 1 month and 5-year survival rates were 83.79% and 20.20%, respectively. The RMST identified that survival was primarily affected by the late stage and older age, where the difference in survival time increased from 1 day at baseline to several years by the fifth year post-diagnosis. Interpretation Our estimates reflect the escalating public health challenges in Kazakhstan. LC is primarily diagnosed in advanced stages, making preventive measures particularly important. Funding This study was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (grant number BR24992950, "Creation and Implementation of Innovative Treatment Methods for Oncological Diseases").

Source: EClinicalMedicine

DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104315