Predator Deterrence by Randomised Flashing Light: The Habituation Bound
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Flashing lights are widely sold to protect sheep, goats and poultry from nocturnal predators, yet predators learn that the flashes predict no consequence and stop avoiding them. This paper states a simple habituation model and uses it to compare fixed-pattern and randomised flash schedules and to derive an upper bound on how long any light-only deterrent can remain effective. Under baseline assumptions (initial avoidance 0.85, threshold 0.30, 6 exposures per night), a fixed-pattern deterrent remains effective for 6.86 nights, a randomised-interval deterrent for 21.61 nights, and a fully randomised schedule for 34.63 nights. Even at an assumed irreducible minimum habituation rate, no light-only deterrent exceeds 43.31 effective nights under baseline assumptions. All designs are SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED. AI disclosure: This paper was drafted with the assistance of Dave, an AI system, at the direction of the author William Alexander Aldred.
Author: Aldred, William Alexander
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225746396
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