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Spatial Analysis of Large-scale Vegetation Fires in 2026: Socio-ecological Impact in the Department of Tolima

Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Fire regimes in the Colombian Andes have undergone extreme changes due to climate change. Given the institutional gap in detailed official mapping to assess the scale of this disaster, this study conducted a spatial analysis of the 2026 season of large-scale vegetation fires to quantify their extent and socio-ecological impact in Tolima. Using Sentinel-2 imagery, burn scars larger than 0.5 hectares (July–September) were mapped. The results were compared with the historical baseline from MapBiomas Fuego (2000–2025), and spatial asymmetry was assessed using statistical distribution. A total of 985 fires were identified, affecting 87,957.5 ha—a figure that exceeded the historical seasonal average by 1,791%. The analysis showed that 88.7% of the fires were smaller than 100 hectares; however, just 1.8% of the events (>1,000 ha) accounted for 55.7% of the total burned area. This asymmetric behavior fit a power-law model (α = 0.87), reflecting a state of self-organized criticality and scaling toward large fires, with individual maximums of 7,204 ha. Geographically, 71.5% of the burned area was part of the agricultural matrix, encompassing temporary crops, livestock infrastructure, and ecotones. Additionally, biocultural heritage was compromised, affecting 6.01% of indigenous reserves and extensive areas of peasant reserves. At the ecosystem level, the Tropical Dry Forest was found to have been affected, losing 6% of its remaining cover, in addition to disrupting national strict conservation priorities (RUNAP). It is concluded that historical thresholds of landscape resilience have been exceeded, requiring an urgent transition from a reactive suppression approach to preventive land management in the face of global change.
DOI: 10.32942/x2n978
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225757131
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