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From Joules to Millimetres: The Thermosteric Sea-Level Recount

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: A transparent recount linking observed ocean heat uptake to thermosteric sea-level rise. A planetary imbalance of 0.90 W/m2 corresponds to 1.16 W/m2 over ocean area after the 91% ocean heat share (13.18 ZJ/yr). With the near-surface expansion coefficient the implied rate (1.85 mm/yr) exceeds the observed thermosteric component (1.1-1.4 mm/yr); the observed rate implies a heat-weighted effective coefficient of 1.19-1.51e-4 /K, at which the accounts close (1.20 mm/yr at 1.3e-4 /K). Integrated 1971-2024 under a stated ramp, the ocean gains 485 ZJ, implying 4.43 cm of thermosteric rise. All numbers are from the deposited computation script.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24102457

Author: Aldred, William Alexander

Language: English

Topic: Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Subfield: Oceanography

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7225759575

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