Projected cancer burden in four Asia-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2050: a comparative analysis of China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), China bears an increasing cancer burden at a lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a pattern distinct from Japan, Australia, and South Korea—economies in the Asia-Pacific region with divergent cancer epidemiological characteristics and healthcare delivery systems. Comparing these four countries can reveal how development shapes cancer trends, but such assessment is lacking. This study aimed to compare their burden (1990–2023) and project to 2050 to inform prevention and regional collaboration. Using GBD2023 data for 32 cancers, we analyzed Age-Standardized Incidence/Mortality Rates (ASIR/ASMR) with Joinpoint regression (calculating Average Annual Percentage Change, AAPC), projected future burden via an ARIMA model, and assessed reliability by hold-out validation. In 2023, China reported the highest number of cancer cases (4,462,333.519, 95%UI : [3,739,476.012, 5,249,653.120]) and deaths (2,563,973.759, 95%UI : [2,227,025.697, 2,876,748.211]), with the highest male-to-female morbidity/mortality ratio (1.449/1.835). Australia exhibited the highest ASIR but a relatively low ASMR. ASIR trends are rising in Australia (AAPC women = 0.161, 95%CI : [0.076, 0.250]; AAPC men = 0.179, 95%CI : [0.045, 0.318]) but declining in China (AAPC women = − 0.927, 95%CI : [− 1.066, − 0.783; AAPC men = − 0.210, 95%CI : [− 0.490, − 0.010]). Japan and South Korea show diverging gender trends. Leading cancers vary by country (e.g., lung in China, colorectal in Japan/Korea, prostate/breast in Australia). Projections indicate rising DALY rates for specific cancers, including liver cancer in Australia and pancreatic cancer in Japan. The cancer burden demonstrates distinct patterns across countries with different SDI levels, with diverging incidence trends, overall mortality improvements, but significant rebound risks for certain cancers. These findings provide critical evidence for tailored prevention and regional collaboration in the Asia-Pacific. Not applicable.
Source: Molecular Medicine
Language: English
Subfield: Oncology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,190
OpenAlex ID: W7225761773
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