Assessment of short-term ozone-related mortality burden and health-related economic losses in a typical industrial city: a case study of Zibo, China
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background Given its status as a key region under China’s air pollution prevention and control framework, Zibo is experiencing severe O₃ pollution – a problem requiring prompt mitigation. Objective This study aimed to quantify the temporal variation of MDA8-O₃-P90 concentrations and the associated mortality burden and health-related economic losses in Zibo, a representative industrial city in Shandong Province, and to inform chronic disease prevention and O₃ pollution control strategies. Methods Based on Zibo’s 2014–2024 O₃ monitoring data, socioeconomic statistical indicators, and resident mortality surveillance data in Zibo from 2014 to 2024, this study applied the log-linear health impact assessment formula and the VSL model approach to estimate the number of deaths attributable to O₃ exposure and the associated economic losses for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, and conducted scenario analyses under different O₃ control targets to evaluate potential health benefits and avoided economic losses. Results The results show that the annual MDA8-O₃-P90 concentration in Zibo from 2014 to 2024 ranged from 172 to 204 μg/m 3 , and the annual average concentration increase rate is 0.54%. O₃ pollution has caused serious health hazards and economic losses to the residents of Zibo: From 2014 to 2024, the health economic losses caused by O₃ pollution due to all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases totaled 11.23 (6.12–16.27) billion, 7.01 (2.62–11.31) billion, and 1.83 (1.09–3.42) billion respectively, accounting for 0.26%, 0.15%, and 0.04% of the local GDP, with the health losses caused by cardiovascular diseases accounting for the main part. If the annual MDA8-O₃-P90 concentration can be reduced to the primary-standard threshold of 100 μg/m 3 specified in Chinese national ambient air quality standard GB 3095–2012, the number of deaths caused by O₃ pollution in Zibo will decrease by 7,054, and the economic losses will decrease by 8.37 billion. Conclusion From 2014 to 2024, Zibo’s annual MDA8-O₃-P90 exhibited a fluctuating trend: it rose to a peak in 2019, decreased until 2021, and rebounded moderately afterwards. Both ozone-attributable mortality and economic losses in 2024 remained higher than in 2014. Substantial health and economic benefits would have been achievable if ozone concentrations had been reduced stricter policy targets.
Source: Frontiers in Public Health
Authors: Jingjing Liu, Linlin Li, Xuan Zhao, Shuxia Yang
Institution: Shandong University
Language: English
Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7225781147