Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Its Relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Potosí River Basin, Northeastern Mexico
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study characterizes meteorological drought in the Potosí River Basin, northeastern Mexico, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluates its relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and examines its relevance to the 2021–2023 Nuevo León water crisis. Daily precipitation from 13 stations (1995–2024) was homogenized using Climatol, and the 3-month SPI (SPI3) was related to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) through lagged correlation and phase comparisons accounting for temporal dependence. Of 1326 drought events identified, selected episodes were cross-corroborated against dendrochronological and tropical cyclone records. All 13 stations showed a positive SPI3-ONI association (r = 0.13–0.36), though only 4 retained significance under the primary, autocorrelation-adjusted criterion. Under conventional tests, SPI3 was lower during La Niña than during Neutral or El Niño at all 13 stations; these contrasts held at 10 and 9 stations under the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), and dependence-preserving bootstrap supported them at 12 and 10, while El Niño-Neutral was not robust. The network-average 12-month SPI (SPI-12) reached −1.11 in July 2022, and 26 of 30 months (August 2020 to January 2023) were La Niña. ENSO contributes a spatially widespread but modest component of drought variability, mainly through La Niña-related drying; the water crisis coincided with unfavorable climatic conditions but is not attributable to ENSO alone.
Source: Climate
DOI: 10.3390/cli14110247
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,172
OpenAlex ID: W7225819164