Trends in nuclear medicine service utilization at a tertiary hospital in Northwest China from 2019 to 2025: an interrupted time series analysis
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Background Most COVID-19 evidence concerns mature nuclear medicine services. We quantified the pandemic and reopening effects on a young, rapidly growing department in Northwest China, including the divergent recovery of diagnostic versus radioiodine (¹³¹I) therapy services. Methods We extracted all valid nuclear medicine encounters at one tertiary hospital in Ningxia, April 2019–May 2025. Monthly counts were analyzed by segmented interrupted time series (ITS) regression with Newey–West robust standard errors, intervention points at February 2020 and January 2023 (the first full month after the December 2022 reopening), a September–November 2022 outbreak pulse, annual seasonal terms, and a Lunar New Year (CNY) indicator. ¹³¹I counts from ward opening (March 2020) were modeled with Poisson and negative-binomial regression; a capacity-capped logistic counterfactual estimated forgone utilization. Results Of 11,831 encounters (9,033 patients), pre-pandemic volume grew 18.75/month (95% CI 15.33–22.16; P < 0.0001). February 2020 reduced the slope by − 16.69/month (95% CI − 20.67 to − 12.70; P < 0.0001); the level term was not separately identifiable (− 25.76; P = 0.134) because it is collinear with the slope break, whereas the joint immediate effect (− 42.45; 95% CI − 76.52 to − 8.37; P = 0.015) and an explicit single-month February-2020 pulse (− 101.80; P < 0.0001) both indicated a large one-month collapse (observed 43 vs fitted 129.5). The 2022 pulse (− 95.09; P < 0.0001) and CNY (− 73.90; P < 0.0001) were large, whereas reopening showed no jump (− 20.08; P = 0.198) or slope change (− 0.10; P = 0.898). Adjusted ¹³¹I activity fell after reopening (Poisson IRR 0.473; 95% CI 0.285–0.786; P = 0.004; monthly mean 5.24 to 3.66), although the magnitude was sensitive to how the January 2023 infection wave was handled (IRR 0.40–0.68, with loss of significance when the post period began in April 2023). In capacity-bounded scenarios the cumulative deficit was 2,833–4,682 encounters, with the monthly gap closed by early 2025. Conclusions The pandemic arrested a young service's growth rather than causing a persistent absolute-volume decline; recovery was heterogeneous, with elective ¹³¹I therapy depressed while bone and inpatient services stabilized. Slope-based monitoring, therapy recall, and bed- and supply-contingency planning may aid recovery after systemic shocks. Trial registration: Not applicable (retrospective observational study of administrative records).
Source: Research Square
Language: English
Subfield: Oncology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7226010067